Social Media: The Boisterous, New Triple Play

Until now, cable companies held a lock on “triple play” as a marketing phrase to indicate a consumer’s package of digital services, including phone, traditional cable and Internet access. Alas, social media has emerged as a (welcome) new threat to multi-channel marketing’s status quo and should be allowed to grab the “triple play” title (after all, cable has added a 4th play anyway — high-definition — with speculation of a 5th play in 3-D still to come).

Take the Lupus Research Institute’s Shady Ladies gala last Saturday night in Wellington, Florida.  The goal was to stir awareness for a deadly disease that mostly affects young women.  The evening event included dinner and good fun but, also, had silent and live auctions for celebrity sunglasses (Bruce Springsteen and Patti Scalfia, the Kardashians, Tom Bergeron of Dancing with the Stars fame, Beyonce etc.), as well as a few fashion pieces.

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The Apple Tablet: Don’t Ignore the Hype

What Apple’s latest announcement means to marketers.

Tomorrow is a huge day in our lives as marketers.  I’m taking a not-so-wild shot at this not because I love Apple products (I don’t) but because their ability to transform entire industries by re-thinking how people want to live their lives is stunning.  Apple’s new tablet product will be launched and, with it, the typical hype and expectations are at a fever pitch.  And, they should be.  Although the Kindle from Amazon was a game-changer for the content industry, it hasn’t really changed the lives of marketers as Apple’s launch will.  

The new Apple product will be far more than a device.  It will integrate multiple forms of content into a single destination and do what all of us have wished for since we started buying cellphones and computers for personal use. Voice, music, video, print, data, calendars and phone are all going to be experienced through this technology.  

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The Outlook for 2010

The facts, the stats, and the true in-the-trenches business experiences from 2009 now tell us a lot about what to expect for 2010.  Below is a quick review of some of the key things online marketers should look for in the coming year.

A Slow Recovery

There will be continued slow recovery in US consumer spending, especially for large purchases due to a lack of discretionary cash (not income, per se), increased savings rates and a general adjustment to this new “now”.  2008 changed buying behavior to a “no”-first shopping mindset and 2009 cemented a value-only, thrifty approach.  2010 won’t change this.  Unemployment, under-employment and slow-growth for the private sector are the engines that are choking back substantive improvements in consumer confidence.  While there are certain job sectors re-igniting hiring, most industries will only begin to replace the attrition they forced during the lean 2008 and 2009.

Pent-Up Demand from the Jet-Set

For the super-wealthy demographic, expect that luxury items will be back in vogue as pent-up demand for jewelry, cars, homes, boats, fashion, at today’s reduced costs, increases.  Unfortunately, this is unlikely to offset the dramatic fall-off seen from the much larger affluent group that accounted for much of the demand growth during the run-up to the recession.

Personal Fulfillment for the Rest of Us

The definition of discretionary has changed relative to consumer purchases and buying behavior.  Where, pre-recession, this meant items people didn’t need but wanted, the recession and its epic duration have people focused on their hobbies and passions to relieve stress and to add back pleasure in their lives.  No longer considered discretionary, these hobbies and their related items and services have become part of the indispensable.  I anticipate revenues from home improvement, home-based interests like gardening and exercise, and passion hobbies like crafts, music, fishing, etc. stay in vogue and continue to capture wallet share.

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A Final Holiday Prediction for Online Retail

Significant marketing opportunities remain during the final shopping days of 2009.

Using this year’s performance data, including clicks, conversions and sales, combined with the current demand run rate versus forecasts, I anticipate a rapidly accelerating online growth curve beginning on December 16th and 17th and growing through that weekend. And, the last-minute burst on the 21st to beat the shipping cutoff is going to be unprecedented. There’s a big opportunity to get ahead of this with promotions, search copy and even bid management so retailers can capture the demand and take a little pressure off the order influx.

There have been significant buying pattern shifts all Holiday season, particularly during the Black Friday to CyberMonday run-up. Consumers who have been waiting it out for better promotions will be rewarded as they have been now for the past two seasons. We believe we’re going to see progressive growth starting this weekend, and that this year’s high-water mark could surpass CyberMonday.

Paid Search and ROI: A Sure Thing for Marketers this Holiday Season

Invest in search now to put you a step ahead in 2010.

Depending on your definition of ‘investment’ and ‘return’, search this Holiday is being asked to be as solid as investing in dollars in 2005.  And, for most, it will deliver. But search’s ability as an investment vehicle today is struggling, better yet, starving for capital.

Many players have narrowed paid search’s scope and potential because of the need to deliver month-over-month revenue and profit consistency, despite the fact that year over year, search has proven it can be a consistent, star performer. And in better economies, it was used to prod the market because of its unique ability to instantly gauge and measure interest in products, services, messaging, brand positioning, promotions and more.

As we sit here on Cyber Monday during a time of year when experimentation can be disproportionately higher (to capitalize on naturally higher yields), do we run the risk of compromising next year’s opportunities for this year’s demand and profits?  The answer is yes. But let’s be sure that we understand the expense implications for next year when aggressive growth will be back in vogue and required by management and shareholders.  There will be zero tolerance and jobs will be on the line – talk about pressure.

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Brand Direct Marketing: Liberation!

Don’t be held captive to short-term ROI.  Free your brand.

Late last week, I was fortunate enough to be in the lobbies of each of these four institutions:  Harvard Business Review, The Salvation Army, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Liberty Medical.  Each is a stalwart business and their missions smack you in the face when you walk in the door.  In their lobbies, I could feel the energy.  Better said, lobbies are where the brand meets the customer, real and prospective.  These four are amongst the most successful brand direct marketers in their categories because they intuitively and actively drive growth through discipline and iteration.  But, more, they believe that brand direct marketing is the ‘Engine that Could’ (and does): it drives and shapes perception based on how people respond and buy.  Offers, creative, pricing, terms, messaging evolve as performance reveals.  Brand awareness and a brand’s performance are directly connected.

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Holiday Sales Economic Data: Still Too Early

Job security and a disconnect between consumer confidence and consumer spending loom unpredictably over year-end holiday sales, but significant opportunities remain for marketers to optimize ROI and grow demand.

After months behind doors with our analysts and technology group building out potential new bid management algorithms and rules, this is the time of year when we start testing and tweaking our hypotheses for Holiday.  This annual rite is both a quantitative and emotional climb to Black Friday where we can better forecast Holiday sales demand.  August and September’s economic data is a head-spinner when comparatively evaluating it versus 2008.  Historically, post-recession economic indicators are more predictable relative to buying behavior than times that are in rapid decline as were August and September 2008.

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The Deal: Entry Ticket, not Deal Closer

Retailers’ customer relationships have changed, permanently.  The price, the offer, the goody-bag, so to speak, all matter.  They open the relationship and might cinch a sale but don’t close the deal, suggesting the long-term customer today is not just demanding more, but requiring it.  In its latest quarterly analysts call, J. Crew’s CEO, Mickey Drexler, said it even more bluntly:

“It ain’t inventory that drives profit: it is the right inventory that drives profit. You can buy all day long today, and if you aren’t buying the right stock, the right inventory, the right fashion, it ain’t getting you the sales except at second and third markdowns and on promotions.”

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Back-to-School: Will the Buyer Show Up?

After a week’s worth of intense scanning, reading, searching and analyzing performance data, it seems Moms, Dads and kids are swiping their cards, so to speak. Click and conversion rates look to be steady to last year. Bad news: units look like they’ll be down. No shock. What we’re not seeing so far is a deluge of last-gasp, 50% off, get it now-or-never offers. There are lots of free shipping pricing experiments, but no game-changers.

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Why Catalogs Matter

ACMA? NEMOA? Who are they and why should we care about them? They represent the catalog industry which is a major driver of retail demand, spurring intrigue in all kinds of products that consumers and businesses wouldn’t consider otherwise. Without them, internet sales would be substantially less.

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